Iran has very complicated topography and Climate including two mountain chains of Zagros and Elborz, two wide deserts of Kevir-e-lut and Dasht-e-kevir, forest lands and three large water bodies of Caspian Sea, Persian Gulf and Oman Sea. Climatically, Iran has a variable Climate.Winters are cold with heavy snowfall in the northwest and below freezing temperatures during December and January.

Researches in exploring of driving forces of Regional endogenous development, concentrate on subjects which have been so controversial. Regional endogenous development (RED), together with other core Regional development concepts, is usually focused on the sub-national Regional development process of the home country. This paper attempts to conceptualize and examine Regional endogenous development model for Iran’ s regions. The work presented here contributes to the design of a Regional endogenous model which is tested in Iran by assessing the domestic forces and drivers of development based in 30 Iranian regions. The paper introduces a conceptual model for the study and then develops and tests the model with data for the primary regions of Iran. Large and positive correlation is found between measures of latent and explanatory independent and dependent variables in the Regional endogenous model. Specifically it is found that such endogenous factors as institution, human capital, entrepreneurship, leadership, innovation and resource endowment are critical driving force for achieving increased Regional productivity and thus tailoring of polices to support Regional endogenous development and growth.

many physical of the procedures related to Climate change are not perceived thoroughly. Scientific knowledge used to show those procedures completely, and to analyses forecasts is so complex, since most current studies about Climate physical model have been done through semi experimental and random models and most of the current analysis techniques are still going through early stages. One of the important aspects of this study is modeling physical procedures of sea level rise geographical pattern, which is used practically for SLR threat evaluation of special geographical location, meaning Caspian basin. Since Caspian basin is a closed sea, it is heavily influenced by Climate change and meanwhile is changing due to physical level and environmental change. It is necessary to define Caspian coast Climate change possibility with specific focus on climatology and meteorology fine data, also to define the scale of sea level fluctuations for the sake of exact planning in different fields. This study aims at presenting a new dynamic method, via using an Integrated model system named SIMCLIM, which can clarify SLR satellite changes well. According to scientific examination existing in this study, based on scatter scenario 4. 5 RCP and 8. 5 RCP for the following years, until 2100, temperature and precipitation change proposal have been presented. On one hand, Caspian coastal Climate change analysis and estimation were based on Climate patterns and water flows in the form of Regional Climate statistical model in order to simulate and forecast, on the other hand surveying chronological changes of Caspian sea coast slope with satellite height measurement was done to measure sea surface height fluctuations The present study has used SIMCLIM model for the first time in order to clarify Caspian sea level changes, elements, and effective Climate reasons, all simultaneously in one project. The project base is according to coastal systems and procedures. Coast line shore change simulations are based in Bruun law. In future the frequency and intensity of extreme events temperature and precipitation will increase. Extreme events illustrate changes in extreme temperature and precipitation measures, in comparison with the base period of 1981-2010 which convey precipitation sum or the temperature beyond 95 percentile of base period. Temperature and precipitation coefficient of variation for the whole Caspian basin is positive and it varies from 25 to 88 percent. A disordered pattern is dominating south basin of the sea. Sea level changes, considering vertical earth movements, which is 2 mm in a year, resulted from subsidence of Caspian pit seabed have been obtained for both scenarios. In general, annual sea level average while ignoring seasonal changes, is increasing consistently and it was calculated 1. 22 cm each year according to high estimation procedure in scenario 8. 5 RCP and it was 0. 93 cm based on scenario 4. 5 RCP. Predicted results were compared with real results of base20-year period from 1995-2015. Base period results in three levels of sensitivity of low, mid, high shows 8. 4, 10. 1, and 11. 8 cm rise; after comparing them with model forecast results, meaningful coordination at the level of 95 percent was found out. In both scenarios, all over the Caspian shoreline water advance and destruction will exist. In the worst case scenario of 8. 5 RCP of 2030, current coast will decrease about 23 meters and in 2060 it will be about 53 and in 2100, there will be 117 meters advance towards land. Precipitation and temperature percent for 2030, 2060, 2100 will change increasingly. Spatial variability and annul coefficient of variation are various in different regions. North, western north, eastern north and east will include the least temperature fluctuations, and the highest percent of precipitation with the highest coefficient of variation all convey chronological period precipitation distribution with disordered accumulation and more local difference in this region in comparison with other regions. Then Caucasus mountainous region will have the highest increase in precipitation with a suitable scatteredness, during a year. The southern part of Caspian Sea will be with the highest increase in temperature and the least amount of increase in precipitation in percent. High coefficient of variation in this area illustrates abnormal and disordered pattern on the threshold of precipitation for both scenarios. fluctuations in sea level based on subsidence of Caspian pit seabed was calculated. In general, average annual sea level is increasing which will be 1. 22 cm, per year for scenario RCP 8. 5 and 0. 93 cm for scenario 4. 5. Due to incapability of world community in decreasing releasing greenhouse gases, it is expected scenario that 8. 5 RCP to come to reality. Caspian Sea shoreline is influenced by water advance and destruction. The difference between two scenarios in 2060 will be 3 meters and in 2100 will be 12 meters. Instinctually, such advances in coasts with less depth and less slope will be more. This study suggests that coastal changes are inevitable. However, this region inhabitant owns no systems or no systems have not yet developed to aid them be able to adopt with the Climate changes.

Floods are one of the most important natural disasters causing extensive loss of life and properties every year all over the world. Occasional tropical or Mansoon rain can produce floods that are sometimes considered as a lifesaver due to water scarcity in arid and semi -arid regions. By simulating the hydrograph of probable floods in each year, action plans can be implemented to reduce damages and also to better plan for utilizing water resources potential of floods. By simulating future rainfall, and estimating the resulted runoff, it can be determined whether a severe flood will occur or not. The simulated flood hydrograph is affected by uncertainties in future rainfall simulation and runoff modeling that should be considered when flood prevention plans are developed. In this study, a long lead flood simulation model is developed, considering the uncertainties in the simulation process. The SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model) is used to generate hourly and daily rainfall data, needed for flood simulation, based on General Circulation Models (GCM) outputs. The extreme simulated rainfalls in each year are considered as the probable flood and a rainfall-runoff model developed in HEC-HMS software environment is used for simulation of the corresponding hydrograph. The uncertainties in hydrograph development are considered through variation of curve number (CN) and time of concentration (Tc). The effect of Climate change on flooding probability is evaluated by comparing the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of the simulated floods with historical floods. The proposed model for long lead flood simulation has been applied to the Kajoo basin located in the south-eastern part of Iran.

Parameters such as future precipitation, temperature, snowfall, and runoff were modeled using PRECIS Regional Climate modeling system in Iran with the horizontal resolutions of 0.44´0.44oC in latitude and longitude under SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. The dataset was based on HadAM3p during the periods of 1961-1990 and 2071-2100. The overall precipitation error of the model in the period of 1961-1990 was 5.3%. Minimum errors were found to be over Azari, north-central, and Kordi regions. Maximum and minimum monthly precipitation errors were found in September and May, respectively, but, minimum and maximum seasonal biases were found in spring and winter with-0.1 and -17.2% errors, respectively. Results revealed a decrease in mean annual precipitation toward the end of the 21st century by 7.8 mm in B2 scenario and 10.1 mm in A2 Scenario with maximum Regional decrease of 100 mm in the southeast of the Caspian Sea. The decrease in precipitation was higher for A2 scenario, whereas it was minimum for B1 scenario. Mean annual temperature of Iran during 2071-2100 would be projected to increase by 4.5-5.5oC in A2 scenario and 3-4oC in B2 scenarios compared to 1961-1990. It was shown that mean annual changes in runoff over the country were negligible both in A2 and B2 scenarios. Maximum annual amount of runoff increase was found over western part of the Caspian Sea, Zagros and Alborz mountain chains by 6.4-15.8mm. Results also indicated that annual snowfall would decrease by the maximum amount of 22.9-23.7 cm over Zagros and Alborz mountain chains.

In this paper, a novel risk-based, two-objective (technical and economical) optimal reactive power dispatch method in a wind-Integrated power system is proposed which is more consistent with operational criteria.  The technical objective includes the minimization of the new voltage instability risk index. The economical objective includes cost minimization of reactive power generation and active power loss. The proposed voltage instability risk employs a hybrid possibilistic (Delphi-Fuzzy)-probabilistic approach that takes into consideration the operator’s experience, the wind speed and demand forecast uncertainties when quantifying the risk index. The decision variables are the reactive power resources of the system. To solve the problem, the modified multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm with sine and cosine acceleration coefficients is utilized. The method is implemented on the modified IEEE 30-bus system. The proposed method is compared with those in the previously published literature, and the results confirm that the proposed risk index is better at estimating the voltage instability risk of the system, especially in cases with severe impact and low probability. In addition, according to the simulation results compared to typical security-based planning, the proposed risk-based planning may increase the security and economy of the system due to better utilization of system resources.

Urmia Lake is the second largest salt lake in the World. This Lake's ecosystem for socio - economic reasons and ecological criteria plays an important role in the North West of Iran. In recent decades, unsustainable Regional development and Climate change has provided the emergence and spread of environmental crisis in Urmia Lake.This research uses the capacity of Integrated environmental planning approach as a holistic and interconnected approach for planning and management of environmental system of Lake Urmia with a strategic and goal oriented process in order to improve the environmental conditions of the lake basin.Methods in this research are based on documentary and field studies with the study of literature in relation to the environmental planning and sustainable development and documentation related to the Urmia Lake and interviews with local and national experts.In this regard, environmental changes and Lake's Ecosystem interactions have been studied and with using of planning and environmental experts and based on the results of the Delphi method and Analytical Hierarchy Process, decision-makers policy has priority to improve the conditions of the Lake's ecosystem.Under these policies, the decision-makers in this basin as the most influential part, should try to gain fully understanding of interactions and impact of human activities on the ecosystem of the lake and to raise awareness of effective and priority groups and to confront seriously with this crisis.

Introduction: All studies in the field of assessment of Climate change impacts needs Climate data with different spatial and temporal scales. The lack of temperature and precipitation data with high spatial resolution is a major limitation to analysis of future Climate change. In addition, the output of the models has the error that needs to be corrected; otherwise, they will make a significant bias for assessing the effects of Climate change. Therefore, identifying the best Regional Climate model for downscale the global Climate models is essential to better understanding of Climate conditions in the local and Regional scale. In the last few years, use of various Regional Climate models for producing a multi-member set of the downscaled data in the CMIP5 project by World Climate Research Program (WCRP) in action with Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) was established as an input to the researches about the impacts of Climate change and adaptation ways. The main objective of this research is accuracy evaluation of different model outputs of the CORDEX project with different domain and resolution in Iran...